Inflation targeting is a simple promise with complicated consequences: the central bank publicly commits to a number for inflation and is judged by whether it hits it. India made that promise in 2015, wrote it into law in 2016 and renewed it in 2021 and again in March 2026. This part goes deeper than How Monetary Policy Works in India: where the idea came from, how India's target was designed, why it uses headline CPI, what happened when the RBI missed it in 2022, how close it came to missing it the other way in 2025, and how credible the framework has turned out to be. The committee that sets the repo rate to hit the target has its own part, The Monetary Policy Committee, and the price indices themselves are covered in CPI vs WPI.
In the news
- 12 Oct 2026: September CPI inflation at 5.54%. Provisional MoSPI data put headline inflation at 5.54%, up from 4.83% in August, with food inflation at 7.74%. The July–September 2026 quarter averaged 4.94%. Why it matters for the exam: inflation is inside the 2–6% band but well above the 4% target, which is the situation flexible inflation targeting is designed to handle before a breach.
- 7 Oct 2026: Repo raised to 5.50%; household expectations at 10%. The MPC raised the repo rate by 25 bp and moved to a "calibrated tightening" stance, citing elevated inflation expectations. The RBI's household survey released the same day showed median one-year-ahead expectations of 10.0%, up 60 bp from July. Why it matters for the exam: anchoring expectations is the core purpose of a target, and a jump in them is a classic trigger for tightening.
- 5 May 2026: RBI explains the 2026 review. Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta reported that 66 of the 72 respondents who answered the headline-or-core question favoured headline CPI, and two-thirds of those who answered on the band wanted to keep ±2%. Why it matters for the exam: it gives the official reasons the framework was left unchanged.
- 25 Mar 2026: Target renewed to 2031. Gazette notification S.O. 1580(E) retained 4% CPI inflation with a 2–6% band for 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2031. Why it matters for the exam: this is the third target period; "valid till 2026" is now out of date.
- 12 Feb 2026: New CPI series (base 2024=100). MoSPI replaced the 2012 base. The new series gives food a smaller weight, about 37% against about 46%. Why it matters for the exam: the target is defined in CPI, so a new index changes the thing being targeted.
- 12 Jan 2026: Inflation below 2% for a fourth month. December 2025 CPI inflation was 1.33%, the last print on the 2012 base. The October–December 2025 quarter averaged 0.76%, the second quarter in a row below the 2% floor. Why it matters for the exam: the failure rule works in both directions, and India came within one quarter of breaching the lower limit.
- 12 Nov 2025: Record-low inflation of 0.25%. October 2025 CPI inflation was the lowest in the 2012 series, helped by GST rate cuts and falling food prices. Why it matters for the exam: very low inflation is a "miss" too, which is why the band has a floor.
- 12 Nov 2025: South Africa adopts a 3% target. South Africa's Finance Minister announced a 3% point target with a ±1 percentage point band, replacing the 3–6% range used since 2000. Why it matters for the exam: many emerging economies have lowered or narrowed their targets, the debate India deferred in 2026.
What inflation targeting is
The idea
Under inflation targeting (IT), the central bank announces a numerical target for inflation over a medium-term horizon, uses its policy rate to steer forecast inflation towards it, explains its decisions publicly and is held accountable for the outcome. The target is the nominal anchor: the fixed point to which expectations of prices and wages can attach.
The key features are:
- an explicit numerical target (a point, a point with a band, or a range);
- price stability as the primary objective;
- instrument independence: the government sets the goal, the central bank chooses how to reach it;
- forecast-based policy: because rate changes act with a lag, policy responds to projected inflation, not just the latest print;
- transparency and accountability: published decisions, reports and a procedure for explaining misses.
Flexible inflation targeting, India's version, means the central bank also cares about output and can bring inflation back to target gradually rather than at any cost. The RBI Act puts it as price stability "while keeping in mind the objective of growth".
Where it began
New Zealand was the first. Its Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act, 1989 made price stability the single objective, and the first Policy Targets Agreement, signed on 2 March 1990, set a target range of 0–2% inflation. Canada (1991) and the UK (1992) followed. By the RBI's count in its August 2025 discussion paper, 48 economies now target inflation. India adopted it in 2016 in its formal statutory form.
India's road to a target
Before targeting: the multiple indicators approach
From April 1998 until 2015 the RBI used the multiple indicators approach, watching interest rates, credit, output, trade, the fiscal position and inflation without a single anchor. It worked reasonably until the global financial crisis, but inflation then stayed high for years. Headline CPI inflation (2012 series) averaged 7.4% between April 2012 and September 2016, and the January–March 2014 quarter averaged 8.2%. Without a clear anchor, it was hard for anyone to know what the RBI would tolerate. The full history of earlier frameworks is in Part 3.
The Urjit Patel Committee, 2014
Governor Raghuram Rajan set up the Expert Committee to Revise and Strengthen the Monetary Policy Framework, chaired by Deputy Governor Urjit Patel. Its report, dated 21 January 2014, recommended:
- CPI (combined) inflation as the nominal anchor, not WPI;
- a target of 4% with a band of ±2%;
- a glide path from the double-digit inflation of 2013: 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016;
- a Monetary Policy Committee to decide the policy rate.
The glide path was met. On today's MoSPI data, CPI inflation was 5.19% in January 2015 and 5.69% in January 2016.
The Monetary Policy Framework Agreement, 20 February 2015
The government and the RBI signed the Monetary Policy Framework Agreement (MPFA) on 20 February 2015. It made price stability the primary objective, asked the RBI to bring CPI inflation below 6% by January 2016, and set a target of 4% ± 2% for 2016-17 and all later years. It also introduced the failure rule: the RBI would be seen to have failed if inflation stayed above 6% or below 2% for three consecutive quarters. Inflation targeting began in practice with this agreement, though it was still only a contract, not law.
The 2016 amendment and the first target
The Finance Act, 2016 amended the RBI Act in May 2016, adding Chapter IIIF (Sections 45Z to 45ZO) and rewriting the Preamble. The amendments came into force on 27 June 2016. The same day, the government notified the factors that constitute failure. On 5 August 2016 it notified the first target: 4% CPI inflation, with an upper tolerance of 6% and a lower tolerance of 2%, for 5 August 2016 to 31 March 2021. The MPC was constituted on 29 September 2016 and met for the first time on 3–4 October 2016.
The legal division of labour:
| Who | Does what | Where in the RBI Act |
|---|---|---|
| Central Government, in consultation with the RBI | Sets the target in terms of CPI, once every five years | Section 45ZA |
| Central Government | Notifies what counts as failure | Section 45ZN |
| Monetary Policy Committee | Sets the policy repo rate to achieve the target | Section 45ZB |
| RBI | Publishes a Monetary Policy Report every six months | Section 45ZM |
| RBI | Reports to the government if it fails | Section 45ZN |
The first review: RCF 2020-21 and the 2021 renewal
Ahead of the first five-year review, the RBI devoted its Report on Currency and Finance 2020-21 (released 26 February 2021) to "Reviewing the Monetary Policy Framework". Studying October 2016 to March 2020, it found:
- headline inflation averaged 3.9%, with lower volatility;
- trend inflation had fallen from above 9% before targeting to 3.8–4.3%, so 4% remained the right target;
- threshold inflation, above which growth suffers, was 5–6%, supporting 6% as the upper limit;
- 2% was the appropriate lower limit.
On 31 March 2021 the government retained 4% ± 2% for 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2026.
The second review: the 2025 discussion paper and the 2026 renewal
On 21 August 2025 the RBI released Review of Monetary Policy Framework: A Discussion Paper and invited comments until 18 September 2025. It asked four questions:
- Should headline or core inflation guide monetary policy?
- Is 4% still the optimal target for India?
- Should the ±2% band be narrowed, widened or dropped?
- Should the point target be dropped in favour of a range alone?
The RBI received 75 responses. Over 90% of those answering question 1 (66 of 72) favoured headline CPI; there was "strong support" for keeping 4%; two-thirds of those answering question 3 wanted ±2% kept, with the rest favouring a narrower band; and 52 of 56 preferred a point target with a band to a pure range. On 25 March 2026 the government notified the same target, 4% with a 2–6% band, for 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2031 (S.O. 1580(E)). Dr Gupta cited the framework's credibility and the value of predictability amid global uncertainty, and suggested that a slightly lower target and a narrower band could be considered in 2031 if low and stable inflation lasts.
How the target is defined
Point, band and horizon
India has a point target with a tolerance band: 4% is the aim; 2% and 6% are the limits of acceptable deviation. The band exists because supply shocks such as monsoon failures and oil spikes push inflation around in ways a central bank cannot offset quickly without large output losses. The RBI aims at 4% "on a durable basis", not month by month.
The failure rule, worked out
The test uses quarterly averages of monthly year-on-year CPI inflation. The RBI fails if the average is above 6% for any three consecutive quarters, or below 2% for any three consecutive quarters. A single bad month, or even two bad quarters, is not a failure.
Worked example 1: the 2022 failure. MoSPI's final monthly figures for 2022:
| Quarter | Monthly CPI inflation (%) | Average |
|---|---|---|
| Jan–Mar 2022 | 6.01, 6.07, 6.95 | (6.01 + 6.07 + 6.95) ÷ 3 = 19.03 ÷ 3 = 6.34 |
| Apr–Jun 2022 | 7.79, 7.04, 7.01 | 21.84 ÷ 3 = 7.28 |
| Jul–Sep 2022 | 6.71, 7.00, 7.41 | 21.12 ÷ 3 = 7.04 |
Three consecutive quarterly averages above 6% means failure, established once September 2022 data were released on 12 October 2022.
Worked example 2: the 2025 near-miss on the floor.
| Quarter | Monthly CPI inflation (%) | Average |
|---|---|---|
| Jul–Sep 2025 | 1.61, 2.07, 1.44 | 5.12 ÷ 3 = 1.71 |
| Oct–Dec 2025 | 0.25, 0.71, 1.33 | 2.29 ÷ 3 = 0.76 |
| Jan–Mar 2026 (new series) | 2.74, 3.21, 3.40 | 9.35 ÷ 3 = 3.12 |
Two quarters were below 2%, but the third was not, so there was no failure. Note that August 2025 (2.07%) was above 2% while its quarter was still below: the test is about the average.
Why headline CPI, and not WPI or core
CPI rather than WPI
Before 2014 the RBI paid most attention to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). The Patel Committee chose CPI because:
- CPI measures prices households actually pay, so it is what shapes their inflation expectations and wage demands;
- WPI has no services, which are a large and growing part of spending;
- WPI is dominated by traded goods and commodities, so it largely reflects global prices that Indian monetary policy cannot influence;
- a nationwide CPI (combined) series, covering rural and urban India, had become available from 2011.
The differences between the two indices are covered in CPI vs WPI.
Headline rather than core
Core inflation strips out volatile food and fuel. The case for targeting core is that monetary policy cannot make vegetables cheaper after a bad monsoon, and raising rates in response to a food shock may hurt growth without lowering food prices.
The Economic Survey 2023-24 (22 July 2024) put this most sharply: it said it was "worth exploring whether India's inflation targeting framework should target the inflation rate excluding food", arguing that high food prices are usually supply-driven and that poor households could instead be protected through direct benefit transfers or coupons.
The RBI's reply, set out in the 2025 discussion paper:
- Weight and welfare. Food was 45.9% of the 2012 CPI basket, the highest among all targeting countries (the euro area's food share is 14.9%; the US's is 13.6%). The 2023-24 consumption survey found that 90% of the poorest rural households spend over half their consumption on food and energy.
- Persistence and spillover. Food inflation in India has not been more transitory than core. When it persists, it spills into core through wages, rents and mark-ups. Ignoring it would risk second-round effects.
- Expectations and credibility. Households judge inflation by what they buy. Former Governor Shaktikanta Das said removing food would amount to "not having a target".
- International practice. 47 of 48 targeting countries use headline inflation; Uganda alone targets core. Thailand and Norway moved from core to headline.
The averages show why the choice matters:
| Period | Headline | Core | Food | Fuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-targeting (Apr 2012–Sep 2016) | 7.4 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 6.6 |
| First period (Oct 2016–Mar 2021) | 4.4 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Second period (Apr 2021–May 2025) | 5.4 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
Mean year-on-year inflation, %. Source: RBI discussion paper, August 2025, Table 2.
In the first period, low food inflation pulled headline below core; in the second, food pushed headline above core. Core was steadier, at 5.0% in both periods. The settled position, kept in 2026, is to target headline CPI while using core as an analytical guide. The new 2024-base CPI reduces food's weight, which may make headline inflation less volatile in future.
When the target was missed: 2020 and 2022
2020: the break in the series
Inflation averaged 6.67% in January–March 2020 and stayed above 6% for most of 2020, as the pandemic disrupted supply chains. Because of the lockdown, the NSO did not publish inflation rates for April and May 2020 and released imputed indices instead. The MPC treated these two months as a break in the CPI series, so the 2020 episode was never counted as a formal failure.
2022: the only formal failure
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent oil, fertiliser and food prices sharply higher. For the first time in the targeting era, food, fuel and core inflation were all above 6%. Inflation peaked at 7.79% in April 2022. Quarterly averages were 6.34%, 7.28% and 7.04% in the first three quarters of 2022, then 6.12% (October–December 2022) and 6.21% (January–March 2023): five consecutive quarters above 6%.
What followed:
- 27 October 2022: the RBI announced an additional MPC meeting under Section 45ZN and Regulation 7 of the MPC regulations.
- 3 November 2022: the MPC met, chaired by Governor Das, to discuss and draft the report.
- The RBI sent the report to the government, covering the reasons for the failure, the remedial action proposed and an estimate of when inflation would return to target.
- 12 December 2022: the government told Parliament that the report would not be made public, because the Act does not provide for publication. The RBI had already described it as a privileged communication.
Meanwhile the MPC had raised the repo rate from 4.00% to 6.50% between May 2022 and February 2023. Inflation fell below 6% in November 2022 (5.88%), though it went above 6% again in some later months.
How credible has it been?
Lower and steadier inflation
| Measure | Before targeting | Under targeting | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average CPI inflation | 8.1% (2006–16) | 4.6% (2016–26) | Dr Poonam Gupta, May 2026 |
| Range of annual inflation | 3.3–13.4% | 0.3–7.8% | Dr Poonam Gupta, May 2026 |
| Average headline inflation | 7.4% (Apr 2012–Sep 2016) | 4.4% (2016–21); 5.4% (2021–25) | RBI discussion paper, 2025 |
| Standard deviation of headline | 2.3 | 1.6 (2016–21); 1.2 (2021–25) | RBI discussion paper, 2025 |
| Average GDP growth (excluding 2020-21 and 2021-22) | 6.8% | 7.0% | Dr Poonam Gupta, May 2026 |
Inflation fell by about 3.5 percentage points on average, became less volatile, and growth did not suffer. In 2025, India's inflation of 2.2% compared with 5.2% for emerging and developing economies. The RBI's estimates of trend inflation cluster near the target (4.1–4.2% on two methods), a sign that the anchor has held.
Expectations: the weak spot
Anchoring household expectations has been harder. The RBI's own analysis in 2025 concluded that long-run expectations are "still not perfectly anchored", with trend inflation becoming less stable during the 2020 pandemic and in early 2022. Household surveys show expectations well above actual inflation. In the September 2026 round, households' median perception of current inflation was 8.4% and their one-year-ahead expectation 10.0%, when actual inflation was 5.54%. The MPC cited "some evidence of elevated inflation expectations" when it raised rates in October 2026.
The real policy rate
A target also gives a simple way to judge the stance. The real policy rate is the repo rate minus expected inflation.
Worked example 3. In October 2026 the repo rate is 5.50% and the RBI projects 2026-27 inflation at 5.2%. The real policy rate is 5.50 − 5.2 = 0.3%. Before the hike it was 5.25 − 5.2 = 0.05%, close to zero. Against the next three quarters' projected average of 5.8%, it is 5.50 − 5.8 = −0.3%, mildly negative, which is why the MPC signalled that "rate cuts are off the table".
India compared with other targeting countries
| Country or area | Target (%) | Adopted |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 1–3 (range) | 1990 |
| Canada | 2 ± 1 | 1991 |
| UK | 2 | 1992 |
| Brazil | 3 ± 1.5 | 1999 |
| Mexico | 3 ± 1 | 2001 |
| Philippines | 3 ± 1 | 2002 |
| Indonesia | 2.5 ± 1 | 2005 |
| Turkey | 5 ± 2 | 2006 |
| US (PCE) | 2 | 2012 |
| Russia | 4 | 2015 |
| India | 4 ± 2 | 2016 |
| South Africa | 3 ± 1 (from November 2025; was 3–6) | 2000 |
Source: RBI discussion paper, Annex 1 (2025); South Africa from its National Treasury (12 November 2025).
Three patterns stand out:
- Advanced economies cluster at 2%; emerging economies mostly at 2.5–4%. India's 4% sits at the top of the emerging-market cluster, justified by the RBI with the Balassa–Samuelson effect: faster productivity growth in a catching-up economy tends to raise its inflation by about 2 points over advanced economies.
- India's band is wide. Most targeting countries have a band of about ±1 to ±1.5 points; India's ±2 is matched only by a few, such as Turkey.
- Targets come down as credibility grows. Brazil and Indonesia have lowered their target mid-points, and Thailand moved to a 1–3% range in 2020; South Africa narrowed its band in 2025. India chose not to do this in 2026, but the RBI flagged it for 2031.
Common exam traps
- The government sets the target; the MPC sets the repo rate. The RBI is consulted on the target but does not decide it alone.
- The target is 4%, not "2–6%". The band is the tolerance around it.
- Failure is three consecutive quarters, using quarterly averages, not three months and not a single quarter.
- It applies at both ends. Below 2% for three quarters is also a failure. The 2025 episode lasted only two quarters.
- The 2022 report was never published.
- The MPFA (20 February 2015) came before the law (2016). The first statutory target was notified on 5 August 2016, not 2015.
- New Zealand (1990) was the first targeting country, not the UK or the US.
- India targets CPI (combined), headline, not WPI, CPI-IW or core.
Key facts at a glance
| First inflation targeter | New Zealand, 1990 (first Policy Targets Agreement, 2 March 1990) |
| Earlier Indian framework | Multiple indicators approach, April 1998 to 2015 |
| Patel Committee report | 21 January 2014: CPI anchor, 4% ± 2%, glide path 8% (Jan 2015) and 6% (Jan 2016), MPC |
| Monetary Policy Framework Agreement | 20 February 2015 |
| Statutory basis | Finance Act 2016; Chapter IIIF (Sections 45Z–45ZO) in force from 27 June 2016 |
| First target notified | 5 August 2016, for 5 August 2016 to 31 March 2021 |
| First review | RCF 2020-21 (26 February 2021); target renewed 31 March 2021 for 2021–26 |
| Second review | Discussion paper 21 August 2025; renewed 25 March 2026 (S.O. 1580(E)) for 2026–31 |
| Target | 4% headline CPI (combined), band 2–6% |
| Failure | Quarterly average above 6% or below 2% for three consecutive quarters (Section 45ZN) |
| Only formal failure | Jan–Sep 2022 (6.34%, 7.28%, 7.04%); MPC met 3 November 2022 |
| Peak under targeting | 7.79%, April 2022 |
| Record low | 0.25%, October 2025 |
| Average inflation | 8.1% (2006–16) to 4.6% (2016–26) |
| Food weight in CPI | 45.9% (2012 base); about 37% (2024 base) |
| Countries targeting inflation | 48; only Uganda targets core |
Exam corner: what to remember
- Learn the sequence: Patel Committee (21 Jan 2014) → MPFA (20 Feb 2015) → Finance Act 2016 (in force 27 Jun 2016) → target notified (5 Aug 2016) → MPC (29 Sep 2016) → renewal (31 Mar 2021) → discussion paper (21 Aug 2025) → renewal (25 Mar 2026, to 31 Mar 2031).
- Section 45ZA: target, by the government in consultation with the RBI, every five years. Section 45ZN: failure and the report.
- The report must contain reasons, remedial action and an estimate of the time to return to target.
- Flexible inflation targeting means price stability first, while keeping growth in mind.
- Why CPI over WPI: households, services, expectations. Why headline over core: food's large weight, persistence and credibility.
- The Economic Survey 2023-24 suggested exploring a target excluding food; the RBI and the 2026 review kept headline.
- RCF 2020-21: trend inflation 3.8–4.3%, threshold inflation 5–6%; 4% ± 2% appropriate.
- 2026 consultation: 75 responses; 66 of 72 for headline.
- 2022: three quarters triggered failure; in all, five quarters were above 6% (Q4 2021-22 to Q4 2022-23).
- 2025: two quarters below 2% (Jul–Sep 1.71% and Oct–Dec 0.76%), but no failure.
- Comparisons: advanced economies 2%; India 4% ± 2%; South Africa 3% ± 1% since November 2025.
For exam-specific syllabus and pattern details, see our pages for RBI Grade B, SBI PO and IBPS PO.
Test yourself
Which country was the first to adopt inflation targeting, in 1990?
Show answer
Answer: (c) New Zealand's first Policy Targets Agreement in March 1990 set a 0–2% range.
The Monetary Policy Framework Agreement between the Government of India and the RBI was signed on
Show answer
Answer: (b) The MPFA of 20 February 2015 preceded the 2016 statutory framework.
Under the RBI Act, who determines the inflation target?
Show answer
Answer: (c) Section 45ZA gives this power to the Central Government, in consultation with the RBI, once every five years.
The Urjit Patel Committee recommended a glide path in which CPI inflation would be brought down to
Show answer
Answer: (b) The committee proposed 8% within 12 months and 6% within 24 months, before the 4% target applied.
Monthly CPI inflation in a quarter is 6.2%, 5.6% and 6.5%. What is the quarterly average, and does that quarter count towards a failure?
Show answer
Answer: (a) (6.2 + 5.6 + 6.5) ÷ 3 = 18.3 ÷ 3 = 6.1%, above 6%, so it counts even though one month was below 6%.
In October 2026 the repo rate is 5.50% and projected inflation for 2026-27 is 5.2%. What is the real policy rate?
Show answer
Answer: (b) Real policy rate = 5.50 − 5.2 = 0.3%.
The RBI was deemed to have failed to meet its inflation target for the first time after which quarters?
Show answer
Answer: (b) Quarterly averages of 6.34%, 7.28% and 7.04% in January–September 2022 led to the MPC's special meeting on 3 November 2022.
Which document suggested in July 2024 that India explore targeting inflation excluding food?
Show answer
Answer: (c) The Economic Survey 2023-24 raised the idea; the RBI and the 2026 review kept headline CPI.
The inflation target notified on 25 March 2026 applies for
Show answer
Answer: (b) Gazette notification S.O. 1580(E) retained 4% ± 2% for five years from 1 April 2026.
In the RBI's household inflation expectations survey released on 7 October 2026, median one-year-ahead expectations were
Show answer
Answer: (d) One-year-ahead expectations rose 60 bp to 10.0%; 8.4% was the perception of current inflation.
Further reading
- Report of the Expert Committee to Revise and Strengthen the Monetary Policy Framework (Urjit Patel Committee), January 2014: the design document for India's target, including the case for CPI and the glide path.
- Report on Currency and Finance 2020-21: Reviewing the Monetary Policy Framework (RBI): the first five-year review, with the evidence on trend and threshold inflation behind 4% ± 2%.
- Review of Monetary Policy Framework: A Discussion Paper (RBI, August 2025): the most complete official account of a decade of targeting, with cross-country tables.
- Poonam Gupta, "Inflation Targeting in India" (speech, 5 May 2026): the results of the 2025 consultation and the reasons for the 2026 renewal.
- Economic Survey 2023-24, Government of India: the government's case for exploring a target excluding food, in the chapter on prices and inflation.
- RBI, Monetary Policy overview: official summary of the target notifications and the failure rule.
- Inflation Expectations Survey of Households, September 2026 round (RBI): the latest data on how households see inflation.
Sources
- RBI, Review of Monetary Policy Framework: A Discussion Paper, 21 August 2025: New Zealand first in 1990; four questions; comment deadline; Table 2 means and standard deviations; food weight 45.9% and food shares abroad; consumption survey findings; Das quote; 2022 breach, 7.8% peak, five quarters, 3 November 2022 meeting; trend inflation estimates; anchoring "still not perfectly anchored"; Balassa–Samuelson estimate; Annex 1 targets and adoption years; 48 countries; Uganda; band widths of 1–1.5% (accessed 24 October 2026)
- RBI, speech by Dr Poonam Gupta, 5 May 2026: S.O. 1580(E); 31 March 2021 renewal; 8.1% versus 4.6%; ranges 3.3–13.4% and 0.3–7.8%; growth 6.8% versus 7.0%; 2.2% in 2025 versus 5.2% for EMDEs; 75 responses and the counts for each question; 47 of 48 countries; reasons for the decision; issues for 2031 (accessed 24 October 2026)
- RBI, Monetary Policy overview: notifications of 5 August 2016, 31 March 2021 and 25 March 2026; failure definition; MPC constituted 29 September 2016 (accessed 24 October 2026)
- MoSPI CPI API (base 2012=100), all-India combined general index: final monthly inflation from 2014 to December 2025 used for every quarterly average in this article, including January 2015, January 2016, 2022 and 2025; April–May 2020 not published (accessed 24 October 2026)
- MoSPI, CPI press release for September 2026, 12 October 2026: monthly inflation January–September 2026 on base 2024=100; 5.54% headline and 7.74% food in September (accessed 24 October 2026)
- RBI, press release on Report on Currency and Finance 2020-21, 26 February 2021: 3.9% average; trend inflation 3.8–4.3%; threshold 5–6%; 4% ± 2% appropriate (accessed 24 October 2026)
- RBI, press release on additional MPC meeting, 27 October 2022 and meeting of 3 November 2022: Section 45ZN, Regulation 7, meeting to draft the report (accessed 24 October 2026)
- Business Today, 12 December 2022: government's statement in Parliament that the report would not be published (accessed 24 October 2026)
- Outlook Business, October 2022: quarterly averages of 6.3%, 7.3% and 7.0% in 2022; privileged communication (accessed 24 October 2026)
- Business Standard, 6 August 2020: MPC treating imputed April–May 2020 data as a break in the series (accessed 24 October 2026)
- Moneylife, March 2015: MPFA terms, below 6% by January 2016, 4% ± 2% from 2016-17, three-quarter failure rule (accessed 24 October 2026)
- RBI Annual Report 2014-15, Monetary Policy Operations: MPFA signed 20 February 2015 (accessed 24 October 2026)
- Business Standard, 21 January 2014: Patel Committee's CPI anchor and 8%/6% glide path (accessed 24 October 2026)
- Taxheal, June 2016: notification of the factors constituting failure on 27 June 2016 (accessed 24 October 2026)
- Business Today, 22 July 2024: Economic Survey 2023-24 suggestion and quote on excluding food (accessed 24 October 2026)
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand museum, "Implementing price stability": 1989 Act; first Policy Targets Agreement of 2 March 1990 with a 0–2% range (accessed 24 October 2026)
- South Africa National Treasury, 12 November 2025: new 3% target with ±1 point band replacing 3–6% (accessed 24 October 2026)
- RBI, Households' Inflation Expectations Survey, 7 October 2026: September 2026 round; 8.4% current perception; 9.9% three months ahead; 10.0% one year ahead (accessed 24 October 2026)
- RBI, MPC Resolution, 5–7 October 2026 and Governor's Statement: repo 5.50%, calibrated tightening, elevated expectations, 5.2% projection for 2026-27, 5.8% over three quarters, "rate cuts are off the table" (accessed 24 October 2026)
- Business Standard, 12 November 2025: October 2025 inflation of 0.25%, lowest of the series, GST cuts (accessed 24 October 2026)
- Business Today, 12 January 2026: December 2025 inflation of 1.33%, fourth month below the lower band, last print on base 2012 (accessed 24 October 2026)
- Drishti IAS, 13 February 2026: new CPI base 2024; food weight about 36.75% versus 45.86% (accessed 24 October 2026)